Great Lakes Water Levels Monthly Outlook: November 2026

All five lake systems fell from September to October. Lake America (Lake Ontario) dropped the most, about 28 centimeters (11 inches), and still finished October 21 centimeters above its long-term October average. The November 2026 coordinated outlook projects lower monthly means on all five lake systems through December.

Paired bars compare October 2026 lake-wide means with October 2025 and long-term October averages. Superior was below both benchmarks. Michigan–Huron was above last year and below average. St. Clair, Erie and Lake America were above both benchmarks. Exact comparisons are in the adjacent table. — October 2026 coordinated means against two October benchmarks. USACE’s current monthly bulletin uses Lake America, while the CWMS daily series still uses Lake Ontario.

Observed October monthly means

Lake system	Oct. 2026 mean	Since Sept. 2026	vs. Oct. 2025	vs. October average
Lake Superior	183.42 m / 601.77 ft	−7 cm	−2 cm	−10 cm
Michigan–Huron	176.43 m / 578.84 ft	−10 cm	+17 cm	−3 cm
Lake St. Clair	175.17 m / 574.70 ft	−15 cm	+15 cm	+14 cm
Lake Erie	174.23 m / 571.62 ft	−13 cm	+12 cm	+13 cm
Lake America	74.83 m / 245.51 ft	−28 cm	+26 cm	+21 cm

October means are provisional, referenced to IGLD 1985. Month-to-month differences use the published meter values. Year-over-year and long-term differences are from the coordinated bulletin.

Superior finished 10 centimeters below its long-term October average, the largest deficit of the five lake systems. Michigan–Huron was 3 centimeters below average and 17 centimeters above October 2025. St. Clair and Erie were 14 and 13 centimeters above their October averages, respectively. Preliminary USACE estimates put October basin-wide precipitation at 64% of average.

Coordinated forecast from November through April

The table shows the center of the USACE and Environment and Climate Change Canada forecast. Superior reaches its lowest projected monthly mean in March. Michigan–Huron, St. Clair and Erie reach their lows in February, while Lake America reaches its low in December and trends higher into spring.

Month	Superior	Michigan–Huron	St. Clair	Erie	Lake America
Nov. 2026	183.36	176.32	175.00	174.16	74.69
Dec. 2026	183.28	176.28	174.98	174.12	74.66
Jan. 2027	183.22	176.24	174.98	174.12	74.68
Feb. 2027	183.16	176.23	174.96	174.10	74.68
Mar. 2027	183.13	176.24	175.01	174.18	74.74
Apr. 2027	183.17	176.30	175.08	174.31	74.94

Forecast center values in meters above IGLD 1985. Weather can move actual levels across a wide range. For example, the April band for Lake America spans 74.62 to 75.34 m, around a center of 74.94 m.

What this means at ramps, docks and shorelines

The projected winter decline can matter at shallow ramps, marina entrances and slips that already have little clearance. Check local gauges, current charts and marina notices before relying on a particular approach. Along exposed shorelines, wind and waves can still push water well above the lake-wide mean for short periods.